Now that the dust is settling after one of Canada’s most remarkable federal elections ever, I thought I’d make a few observations, because, well, that’s one of the things they pay me to do.
I was trying to think off the top of my head how many federal elections I’ve voted in since, what’s the voting age, 18? Although I wasn’t able to vote in the first ones I was age-eligible because I wasn’t a citizen, even though I’d been in Canada since I was 8. I didn’t get my citizenship until I was about 28 and living in Whitehorse, Yukon putting education behind me and developing a then, still-new career. (Note added later: 15 elections since I was 18 but eligible for 11)
One of the reasons for finally putting the carefree and ambivalent days of my youth behind me and getting my citizenship was so I could vote. With a degree in communications and political science, I was well aware of the importance of voting, I just hadn’t taken the time to go through the application process. But finally with a career path to follow and stable employment, it was time to make me officially Canadian. I had long since lost the Scottish accent of my childhood. So, I took the oath of citizenship in a ceremony held in the Yukon territorial legislature. Very proud moment.
You can bet that voting is a duty that I take seriously, despite my tardy youth. And most people out there do but not all. North Island-Powell River (NIPR) saw 74 per cent of eligible voters cast a ballot. I’m not going to berate anybody for not voting, although you should, instead congratulate those who did. Because the numbers make a difference.
The numbers game really came into play in NIPR. What the incumbent NDP (but not the incumbent candidate, longtime MP Rachael Blaney did not seek re-election) feared would happen happened. The progressive vote split between NDP candidate Tanille Johnston and Liberal candidate Jennifer Lash allowing Conservative Aaron Gunn to take the seat. Gunn garnered 31,356 votes or 38.3 per cent of the votes, the clear winner over second place Johnston of the NDP who pulled in 26,357 votes (32.6 per cent). Lash was in third place with 21,045 votes (26 per cent). Rounding out the count was Jessica Wegg (Green Party) with 1,558 (1.9 per cent), Paul McKnight (People’s Party) with 341 (0.4 per cent) and Glen Staples (Ind.) with 156 (0.2 per cent).
In our first-past-the-post system, Gunn takes the seat with the most votes (31,356), but he would be sorely mistaken if he were to think he has the majority of support in the riding. The progressive vote in the riding – the NDP and Liberal votes – combines for 47,402 votes. A clear majority. Throw in another 1,558 for the Green vote. But that’s not how it played out, so Gunn is the MP. He faces a major challenge, though, besides not representing most of the voters, which I’ll get to in a moment.
But first, halfway through the election campaign, the NDP pivoted towards preventing a vote split. That was certainly the case in NIPR.
Social media posts warned progressive voters about the danger of a vote split that would benefit the Conservatives, arguing the NDP and Tanille Johnston were the best chance to defeat the right-wing candidate.
Historically, that is true, but some voters in NIPR were thinking nationally and wanted to ensure Mark Carney became prime minister and cast their vote for the Liberals’ Lash. Their votes ended up handing victory to Gunn. Normally, the liberals aren’t much of a factor in NIPR.
Would Liberal votes have gone to Gunn? Probably some, but most likely it would have been a Conservative-NDP race, things being normal.
Would the Conservatives have won anyway? According to the polls, it appeared that was the way it was heading, but 47,402 votes (plus 1,558) were available.
So, now the riding is represented by yet another opposition MP, and he is carrying a lot of baggage. Most people will be familiar with the controversy he faced after Indigenous groups exposed views Gunn expressed in the recent past denying Canada participated in genocide against Indigenous Peoples. During the campaign, he issued a statement condemning the treatment of Indigenous People generally and in residential schools.
Gunn faces the challenge of now representing all NIPR residents, most of whom didn’t vote for him, including a large Indigenous population, some of whom won’t get past his supposedly previous views. He’s going to have to work hard to put the controversy behind him.
The job of an MP is to represent all people of the riding, take their case to Ottawa for resolution, regardless of their point of view. Gunn’s got a lot of work to do to gain people’s trust.
Alistair Taylor has been a writer and editor with Black Press since 1989, most of those years spent as editor of the Campbell River Mirror.
