CREA upgrades home sales forecast for 2019 to show 1.2% improvement

The improvement in sales was driven by the Greater Toronto Area

The Canadian Real Estate Association is upgrading its forecast for 2019 home sales, which are now expected to show a slight improvement compared with last year.

The association said home sales are projected to edge up 1.2 per cent from last year to 463,000 units in 2019 compared with its previous forecast of a decline of 1.6 per cent this year.

READ MORE: Many millennials locked out of the housing market

The updated outlook came as CREA reported home sales in May were up 6.7 per cent compared with a year ago, the largest year-over-year increase since 2016.

On a month-over-month basis, sales in May through the Multiple Listing Service were up 1.9 per cent.

“Defying the gloom-and-doomers, the Canadian housing market is gradually regaining strength, powered by falling long-term interest rates and the fastest population gains in a generation,” Bank of Montreal chief economist Doug Porter wrote in a report.

The improvement in sales was driven by the Greater Toronto Area, which accounted for close to half of the overall increase.

“That rebound in sales has brought the GTA market back into better balance, and has helped lift prices at a moderate pace,” Porter wrote.

The national average price for a home sold in May was close to $508,000, up 1.8 per cent from a year ago. Excluding the Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto Area, two of the country’s most expensive markets, the average price was just under $397,000.

Home sales softened last year in the wake of new mortgage stress test rules and a rise in mortgage rates.

However, sales have improved in recent months as mortgage rates have trended lower and the economy shows signs of rebounding after the weakness at the end of 2018 and the start of 2019.

TD Bank economist Rishi Sondhi said that markets have also had additional time to adjust to federal and provincial policy measures, which weighed significantly on activity last year.

“Moving forward, we look for sales to trend higher, lifted by a rising population, a more stable rate environment and supportive federal measures,” Sondhi wrote in a report.

CREA also pointed to several changes in the federal budget this year to help potential buyers.

The spring budget raised the maximum individual RRSP withdrawal limit under the home buyers’ plan and announced plans for a new shared equity program to help first time buyers.

However, CREA said the overall level of home sales is expected to remain below where it was in recent years and noted that the outlook for 2019 is below the 10-year average and well short of the record set in 2016, when almost 540,000 homes were sold.

Regionally, the association said New Brunswick is expected to see sales rise 10.6 per cent this year, while Quebec is forecast to climb 7.7 per cent. Ontario is expected to gain 3.9 per cent.

Home sales in British Columbia are expected to drop 13.3 per cent this year, while Alberta is forecast to fall 0.9 per cent.

The national average price is forecast to edge down 0.6 per cent to around $485,000 this year following a 4.1 per cent drop in 2018.

In 2020, CREA predicted home sales will rise 4.4 per cent to 483,200, while the national average price is forecast to edge up by 0.9 per cent to around $490,000 next year.

The Canadian Press

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

Bird contacting wires causes massive Port Hardy power outage

The power outage started at 1:18 p.m. and lasted until 3:00 p.m.

Port Hardy Salvation Army serving lunch daily during pandemic

Centre is closed to the public, but overnight shelter, daily lunch and one-on-one services available

Port Hardy arena waiting for almost three million in grant funds needed for maintenance

The funds will be going towards upgrades to the arena and the lobby entrance.

Seniors housing in Port Hardy moves ahead with rezoning application

North Island seniors able to “age in place” in new facility, currently getting funding and permits

Port McNeill curling club will be getting a brand new paint job, thanks to residents

‘The generosity of this community never ceases to amaze me!’

If Trudeau won’t stand up to Trump, how will regular people: Singh

Trudeau did not directly answer a question about Trump’s actions amid protests

VIDEO: Internal investigation into aggressive arrest by Kelowna Mountie

A video allegedly shows a Kelowna Mountie striking a man several times

22 new COVID-19 test-positives, one death following days of low case counts in B.C.

Health officials urged British Columbians to ‘stand together while staying apart’

John Horgan says COVID-19 restrictions won’t be eased regionally

B.C. Liberals urge ‘tailored’ response based on infections

Feds get failing grade for lack of action plan on anniversary of MMIWG report

‘Instead of a National Action Plan, we have been left with a Lack-of-Action Plan’

Search and rescue crews help locate 62-year-old Nanoose Bay mountain biker

RCMP: Man got lost on trail and did right thing by calling for assistance

B.C. ranchers, lodge operators say Indigenous land title shuts them out

Tsilhqot’in jurisdiction affects grazing, access to private property

As two B.C. offices see outbreaks, Dr. Henry warns tests don’t replace other measures

Physical distancing, PPE and sanitizing remain key to reduce COVID-19 spread

Greater Victoria drive-thru window smashed after man receives burger without mustard

Greater Victoria Wendy’s staff call police after man allegedly rips Plexiglas barrier off window

Most Read