Home buying affordability fades for millennials with new mortgage rule (with VIDEO)

Federal move slashes purchasing power of first time buyers by up to 20 per cent: economist

Home buying affordability fades for millennials with new mortgage rule (with VIDEO)




Millennials trying to buy their first homes face a dramatic hit to the amount they can borrow as a result of the federal government’s move to tighten mortgage qualification rules later this month.

That’s the warning from B.C. Real Estate Association chief economist Cameron Muir, who says the federal finance minister’s announcement Monday flies in the face of government efforts to improve housing affordability at the low end of the market.

“It’s going to have a dramatic impact on affordability for millennials,” Muir said. “As much as 20 per cent of their purchasing power has been eliminated. Many of them will be squeezed completely out of the marketplace.”

READ ALSO: Feds target housing market speculators

Effective Oct. 17, buyers with less than a 20 per cent down payment – most first time buyers – will need enough income to qualify at a higher benchmark interest rate posted by the Bank of Canada, even though their actual payments are based on the lower rate retail banks offer them.

Right now the gap between the two rates is around two per cent, so the rule is equivalent to a sudden interest rate spike of that amount for many buyers.

Muir said a couple with combined annual income of $80,000 and a five per cent down payment can currently buy a home priced at about $500,000.

“That’s going to fall to about $400,000,” he said. “That’s a $100,000 reduction in their purchasing power. That’s a substantial hit to affordability.”

It’s the sharpest government-imposed cut to what new home buyers can afford in years, he said, predicting millennials will bear the brunt.

“Unlike previous generations, their purchasing power has now been reduced through government policy.”

Finance Minister Bill Morneau unveiled the change as one of a series of measures to reduce risk in overheated housing markets.

Muir argued the mortgage qualification rule could have been phased in gradually.

“The shock over a number of years wouldn’t be the same shock we’re now going to see in the markets.”

He said the change threatens to have broader impacts, potentially triggering a drop in home construction activity, associated jobs and economic growth.

Helmut Pastrick, chief economist for Central 1 Credit Union, said he expects some drop in sales to first time home buyers as a result.

First time buyers account for a larger proportion of sales in more affordable regions like the Fraser Valley and Okanagan – up to 35 per cent – compared to around 25 per cent near Vancouver.

Unlike the foreign buyer tax B.C. has imposed only in Metro Vancouver, Pastrick said the federal mortgage qualification change is “indiscriminate” and applies everywhere, even where overheated real estate has not been a problem.

“It will ripple out beyond the first-time home buyer market,” Pastrick said, adding existing owners seeking to sell or downsize are often dependent on a first-time buyer purchasing their home.

Pastrick is in the process of scaling down Central 1’s forecasts for real estate market and B.C. economic growth for 2017 as a result of the mortgage rule change.

He expects a five per cent decline in benchmark home prices over the next six to nine months, coupled with lower sales.

But Pastrick predicts the real estate market will stabilize over time, not collapse.

“Markets will adjust –this is not the beginning of the end of the cycle,” he said, citing the strong trends of growth for B.C.’s economy, jobs and population.

Just Posted

Port Hardy council has agreed to cancel Canada Day celebrations in wake of the discovery of the remains of 215 children being found on the grounds of a former residential school. (North Island Gazette file photo)
Council votes to cancel Canada Day celebrations in wake of mass grave sites being found

Coun. Treena Smith made the motion for the chamber to not host Canada Day celebrations this year

Port Hardy Fire Rescue responded to an early morning fire around 3:50 a.m. on Sunday, June 13. Two porta-potties were on fire at the Visitor’s Centre on Hastings Street. Anyone with information is asked to contact the RCMP at 250-949-6335. (Port Hardy Fire Rescue photo)
Firefighters respond to early morning fire near visitor centre in Port Hardy

Two porta-potties were on fire at the Visitor’s Centre on Hastings Street

North Island MLA Michele Babchuk. Photo contributed
COMMENTARY: MLA Michele Babchuk talks the future of forestry

‘These forests are important to every single one of us, myself included’

Dr. Prean Armogam hands over a cheque for $10,000 to Hardy Bay Senior Citizens Society president Rosaline Glynn. The money will be going towards a new roof for the Port Hardy seniors centre. This is the second donation Dr. Armogam has made to the society, giving them $5,000 a little over a year ago. (Tyson Whitney - North Island Gazette)
Doctor donates $10k to Hardy Bay Senior Citizens Society for new roof

This was the second donation Armogam has given to the society

New COVID-19 cases on Vancouver Island by local health area for the week of May 30-June 5. (B.C. Centre for Disease Control image)
COVID-19 cases drop again almost everywhere on Vancouver Island

Nanaimo had four new cases last week, down from 22 the week before

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau participates in a plenary session at the G7 Summit in Carbis Bay, England on Friday June 11, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
Canada donating 13M surplus COVID-19 vaccine doses to poor countries

Trudeau says the government will pay for 87 million shots to be distributed to poor countries

Gabriola Island artist Sheila Norgate is promoting the Digital Innovation Group’s art impact survey. (File photo)
Vancouver Island artists get behind regional arts impact study

Artists urged to use their stature to help put arts and culture super-region on the map

The BC Ferries website went down for a short while Monday morning following a provincial announcement that recreational travel between health authorities can resume Tuesday. (Black Press Media file photo)
BC Ferries’ website crashes in wake of provincial reopening announcement

Website back up now, recreational travel between health regions to resume as of Tuesday

Neighbours fight a small late-night bush fire with garden hoses and shovels in Cinnabar Valley on June 5. They couldn’t get help from local fire services because the fire was located in an area under B.C. Wildfire Services jurisdiction. (Photo courtesy Muriel Wells)
Neighbours on edge of Nanaimo city limits left to put out bush fire themselves

Cinnabar Valley residents tackle fire with hoses and buckets for two and a half hours

Darren Campbell’s truck (pictured) was stolen when he stopped to check on a car in a ditch on Cowichan Bay Road on Monday morning. (Facebook photo)
Vancouver Island Good Samaritan’s truck stolen in nasty trick

‘Try to be a Good Samaritan and my $20,000 truck gets stolen right under my nose’

The Kamloops Indian Residential School is photographed using a drone in Kamloops, B.C., Monday, June, 14, 2021. The remains of 215 children were discovered buried near the former school earlier this month. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward
Communities grapple with what to do with former residential and day schools

Some tear them down as a tool to help healing, others repurpose them as tools for moving forward

Creative handmade signs abound at the June 13 Tofino rally for old growth trees. (Nora O’Malley photo)
VIDEO: Tofino stands in solidarity for Fairy Creek Blockades

Over 150 supporters attend rally hosted by Friends of Clayoquot Sound

FILE – Provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry talks about B.C.’s plan to restart the province during a press conference at Legislature in Victoria, Tuesday, May 25, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito
B.C. officials watching U.K.’s Delta variant struggles, ‘may need to slow’ plan going forward

Studies show that one dose of vaccine is only 33 per cent effective in preventing B.1.617.2 spread

RCMP Const. Shelby Patton is shown in this undated handout photo. RCMP say that Patton was hit by an allegedly stolen truck that he had pulled over on Saturday morning in Wolseley, east of Regina. THE CANADIAN PRESS/HO, RCMP
Pair charged in Saskatchewan Mountie’s death make first court appearance

Const. Shelby Patton was hit by an allegedly stolen truck that he had pulled over Saturday morning

Most Read